1:08 PM. Making the right read and extending the play plausibly are two big reasons for this. The final model does a decent job of predicting separation at the catch point on a given play.4 We used its predictions as a baseline for performance and compared each receivers actual separation on a given play to what the model expected an average players separation would have been, given similar circumstances. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? The aim now is to do the same thing for receiving. And targets to him are among the most valuable plays in football across all depths. Metcalf ran a. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. While Johnson had the worst year of his career since becoming a Bills starter, he still managed to pull down targets on 25% of his snaps. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 . or on teams regularly employing multiple WRs on the field. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. Then we could compare the typical, expected openness for an average receiver to the actual openness assessed by a model looking at tracking data. We've discussed Thomas' ability until we're nearly blue in the face -- although cardio while masked seems to have improved this writer's lung capacity -- but we're tasked with justifying one final appearance atop a list of excellent route runners. Future iterations of the model will look to delve deeper into the route tree to account for the nuance of route-running at the pro level. Seems like he has a strong case, even without a touchdown scored on a hitch. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? Only the Catch and YAC Scores are counted for targeted screen routes, because openness on those routes is due to play design far more than receiver ability. Kirk was targeted at least 13 times on five different routes: Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. He grew up in Sanford, Florida, where he shined as a receiver for Seminole highschool. best players at key positions this summer, new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. There are always going to be outliers on both ends of the spectrum for every statistic and measurable. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL.